Evaluation of export potential

Export is considered as took out outside the country of commodities for realization of them at the oversea market or as an amount and cost of the commodities taken out abroad. However, if to consider an export as substantial factor of influence on the economic growth, on integration of country in a world economy, then it gets trait of potential that means the hidden ability to provide achievement of the set purpose and decision of certain problem of community development. Such dualistic look at essence of export has an important value for deepening of methodological basis of directions lay-out of its development, increase of possibilities of positive influence on the economy of country. Samuelson and Northous determined an export as commodities and services which are produced inside a country and are for sale abroad. An export consists of export of goods and services.

Beginning from 2000 Ukraine is having an economic growth accompanied by unstable traces of the movement of the GDP, products of agriculture, investments, comsumers expenditure and the foreign trade indicators .

The data in Table 1 show that the rate of the change in the exports correspond to the increase of the GDP value, while the decrease of the rates of its augmentation in 2005 are very much associated with an abrupt decrease in the exports deliveries under conditions of a rising political non-stability in the country. The estimation of the investment of the foreign trade into the process of the economic growing is very contradictive, since between 2005 and 2007 the economy’s losses due to the negative balance amounted to $ 18.5 milliard, and according to a forecast for 2008 that value is expected to be at the level of $ 12.5 milliard .

A weak link in Ukraine’s foreign trade is the exports structure, in which 3/4 is the raw materials and the primary processing products. Because of delay in the restructuring of the economy, the most important exporting opportunities are still concentrated in traditional industrial and raw materials branches. The largest commodity groups in the structure of the exports of the industrial products there are the basic metals (42.8 %), minerals (10 %), chemicals (almost 9%) and other raw materials products (12%) (Table 2). The structural dynamics of Ukraine’s industrial exported products shows that the movement of its separate positions contradicts the world trends. For instance, in the exports structure there is rising of the share of the basic metals, while this in the world has a decreasing dynamics. On the contrary, the share of machines, apparatus, transportation means goes down, despite its intensive rising in the global trade.

The competitive advantages of the national producers are accounted for by the availability of specific natural resources, in particular, of the iron-ore raw materials, a developed transport infrastructure, favouring geographical location, low costs of the labour force, low level of the expenditures on the upgrading and renovation of the fixed production funds. Wearing of the fixed funds in Ukraine’s industry is over 50 %, while in the basic export-oriented branch — metallurgy — it amounts to 65 %. Moreover, in this branch almost a half of steel is melted by using the Martin process, while in the world that process is used for production of only 2.5 % of steel. It is metallurgy that the problems of Ukraine’s economy and its exports are associated with. The study shows that the external demand for the products of this industry in fact defines the prospects for the economic growth on the whole, as metallurgy makes a significant share of the commodity exports. Calculations demonstrate that during 1997 — 2005 the GDP and exports dynamics determined the variation of the multiplication coefficient by approximately 1 %, that is 1 % of the decrease or increase in the exports of the metallurgical products was associated with about 1% of a decrease or an increment of the GDP .

Аn analysis of the states of the global markets made it possible to identify the set of the products the demands for which have been rising incessantly for more than decades. The market dynamics of these goods remains even at the present time, which is proved by the indicators of their dynamics and the share in the global exports (Table 3). The global exports of the above given goods rises in average annually by almost 13 %, while their total share in 2006 amounted to 22 % of the total volume of the exports. According to some data, this share in the exports of some countries, for example, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, is till larger. Due to our calculations, these goods made only 3.7 % in the structure of Ukraine’s exports, though their share rose by almost twice as compared to the level in 2002. The share of the exports of machines for automatic data processing, as well as that for the office equipment components, transistors and semiconductors is very insignificant. It is these kinds of products that are most characterised by the highest rate of the growth (15—16 % annually) and by their importance concerning their share (4.0—3.4 %) in the structure of the global exports, which is typical for the modern informational economy.

The performed analysis shows that Ukraine has non-prospective positions on the global market, for the raw materials oriented exports and an insignificant share of the goods being on growing demands results in losing profits and worsening of the conditions for trading. The structure of the commodities exports of the electronic industry products include computers, office equipment, television-sets, radio-sets, transistors and semiconductors, which in 2006 amounted to 3.4 % and exceeded the cost value of their exporting by 3,3 times as compared to that in 2002 (Table 5). From these tables it is evidently that the increase of export of these highly technological wares is accompanied growth of negative balance through exceeding of volume of import of the resulted positions of analogical foreign wares, that in a transformation period it is possible to consider positive. However, the absence of structural reforms of the Ukrainian economy can result in irretrievable lag from main direction in the globalizing world: wider use of high technologies able to produce scientific products with high maintenance of surplus value. Creation of the technical base for forming of high technologies in all industries of national economy requires the use of effective measures of structural and scientific and technical policy of countries, the result of which adjusting of domestic production of microelectronic components and electronic wares, which are characterized high maintenance of value-added and became the source of the economy growing of Korea, Japan and other countries. Except for industrial sector Ukraine has ponder able agrarian sector. Its potential of which, unlike the traditional participants of world markets of agrarian products (The USA, EU, Canada), yet is not outspent. According to the estimation of specialists, there is involved only third of productive forces of nature and company in Ukraine. Agrarian products of Ukraine are competitive on world markets and entering to WTO, in our view, will not entail substantial problems in this sector. At the favourable state of affairs the volume of export of basic types of agrarian products in 2006 was increased against 2005 in a value term on 315 million dollars and arrived at almost 2,5 milliards of dollars even at diminishing of his volumes in natural indexes (table. 5). However braked development of agrarian sector is through the lacks of pricing on an agricultural produce. Foreign firms which comes to the national market on the Uruguayan agreement buy in an agricultural produce on low regional prices, and difference between them and allows to appropriate not only export but also natural (absolute), rent world prices.

From above-explained it is possible to come to the conclusion, that Ukraine was not yet able to occupy the own reliable niches of supply of the prepared commodities in the world market, but not raw material and low- technological products. Overwhelming part it most point-of-sale partners on the indexes of GDP and export on one person are at considerably higher level .

For development of export potential of Ukraine it is necessary in the nearest prospect: — to promote the competitiveness of the Ukrainian producers on the basis of activation of structural reformation of economy, foremost export-oriented sector; to carry out the high-quality changes of specialization of Ukraine in the world division of labor on the basis of development and realization of complex export strategy, oriented to the increase of part in the export of the innovative and traditional Ukrainian products with the high level of valueadded, increase of grant of highly technological services: — reorient the imported strategy in direction of providing of complex decision of problems of modernization of national industry and active policy of import substitution (limitation of import of the imported commodities is during intensification of analogical production in Ukraine); — to solve the problem of disparate of purchase and imported prices on the products of agrarian sector.