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ASKING FOR TROUBLE.

The single currency will lead to regional conflict, not economic efficiency.

The European nations hurtling toward Economic and Monetary Union are heading for trouble. emu is likely to bring higher unemployment and higher in­flation. Pursuit of a common policy will cause conflicts among participating governments that will intensits as the monetary union evolves into a more wide-ranging political union responsible for foreign, military and domestic policies.

Joblessness will rise because interest and exchange rates will no longer automatically counter cyclical unemployment. Today, for example, if a recession in Latin America causes Spanish ex­ports to decline, the peseta weakens and Spanish in­terest rates fall. That causes Spain’s other exports to rise and domestic interest-sensitive spending to increase. The net effect is a smaller rise in unemployment. But once the peseta is replaced by the euro, Spain cannot be helped by a currency adjustment or by a fall in interest rates (since these must be uniform throughout the mone­tary Union). EMU membership would also deny Spain the option of easing monetary policy to stimulate growth and employment. And, be­cause of the misnamed stability pact, the Spanish government will not be able to cut taxes or raise spending to offset a fall in demand.

Some Europeans reject such pessimism, citing the example of the U.S., which avoids persistent high regional unemployment despite its single cur­rency and single central bank. Unfortunately, three basic differences between the U.S. and Europe mean that Amer­ica’s success with a single currency is not relevant to Europe.

First, Americans are very mobile - moving from high un­employment regions to places where there are jobs. In Europe, linguistic barriers prevent similar mobility. Second, U.S. wages are much more flexible. Wages fall in regions where demand declines, offsetting increases in production employment. And, finally, when income declines, individual and business taxes paid to the federal government decline sharply, implying a strong net transfer to that region. For these reasons, unem­ployment rates are far less sensitive to U.S. regional demand fluctuations than they would be in a single-currency Europe.

Europe’s current double-digit unemployment rates are not cyclical but are caused by bad structural policies - misguided regulations, high minimum wages, and generous unemployment benefits. A few countries have made progress by changing these counterproductive rules. Their experience shows what can be done and provides competitive pressures to force reform elsewhere. But the increased centralization of policy that accompanies EMU will make it harder for individual countries to experiment with reforms. The European Commission’s recent pronouncement that it will force countries to respect maximum working hours is an indication of things to come.

Inflation in Europe has fallen sharply during the past decade as individual central banks emulated Germany’s fiercely anti-in­flationary Bundesbank. Although other countries do not share the Germans’ fervid opposition to inflation, they have been forced to follow Germany’s lead to avoid devaluing their curren­cies. This monetary discipline will end when EMU gives every country an equal vote at the European Central Bank. Without Germany’s leadership, European inflation will be higher in the next decades than it has been in recent years.

These adverse effects on unemployment and in­flation far outweigh the commercial benefits that will flow from EMU. the elimination of tariffs and other barriers by the 1992 Single Market agree­ment was far more important for stimulating trade and investment.

Despite these shortcomings, EMU looks like­ly to begin on schedule because economic issues are secondary to political aspirations. For Ger­many and France EMU offers  the possibility of dominating European policy-making. Countries like Italy and Spain will join to show that they are economically and politically worthy of member­ship. And the smaller countries are joining to have a seat at the table where European policies are determined. The Maastricht Treaty that cre­ated the EMU calls  for a European political union with broad domestic and international responsibilities. More­over, since no significant country exists - or has ever existed -  without its own currency, the shift to a single currency for the EMU members is a giant step toward such a European state.

Ever since the end of World War II a single European gov­ernment has been advocated as a way of keeping the peace. But a European political union is more likely to be a source of con­flict than a foundation for European harmony. There will be quarrels over monetary policy, over taxation, and over the shap­ing of common foreign policies. There will be disputes between Germany and France about their relative power and influence. There will be conflicts that flow from the frustrations of other E.U. countries - including Britain if it decides to enter - when they find that they are marginalized in the decision process. A Eu­ropean political union with 300 million people and the ability to project military force around the world could be the source of broader international instability in the decades ahead.      

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