Do you want to be in my band?

Other economists disagree. They think that exchange-rate systems can be designed to cope with market pressures, and still provide more stability than floating rates. One much-discussed proposal has been put forward by John Williamson of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. He suggests that countries could pre-­announce bands for their real exchange rates, specifying a central rate with a 10% margin on either side. Governments would try to keep their nominal exchange rates within this zone. If necessary, rates could be realigned before the limits were reached. Faced with an “unwarranted” speculative attack, a country could tem­porarily suspend its commitment.

Such a system would retain some flexibilily, white being more stable than man­aged floating. However if the bands were always moved before they were tested, target zones would be little different from man­aged floating. If they were not, the system would suffer from the same problems as fixed-rate regimes. At the margin, the practical difference between the two sys­tems may be small. But the success of ei­ther will depend, as any exchange-rate system must, on whether governments will allow the exchange rate to be a big fac­tor in setting domestic policies.

 

 

VOCABULARY

 

1. to plunge	резко снижаться (о курсе валют)
2. floating exchange-rate-system	система плавающих валютных курсов
3. to adjust exchange-rates	корректировать, изменять валютные курсы
4. flexible	гибкий, способный изменяться (о валютном курсе)
5. robust	зд. Устойчивый
6. pegged rates	«привязанные» курсы, т.е. привязка курса валюты к какому-либо ориентиру (например, другой валюте)
7. managed exchange-rate-system	система управляемых валютных курсов
8. «fundamental disequilibrium»	валютный курс при отсутствии «фунда-ментального равновесия»
9. target parities	намеченный паритет валют
10. derivatives	производные финансовые инструменты (фьючерсы, опционы и т.д.)
11. debt-interest costs	расходы, связанные с погашением и обслуживанием долга
12. targeting	таргетирование, т.е. установление ориенти-ров (роста)
13. band (s)	предел(ы) колебаний валютных курсов
14. margin	зд. разница между курсами валют
15. to realign (central rates)	пересмотреть (центральные курсы валют)
16. to be tested	зд. приближаться к предельному уровню (о валютном курсе)

 

2. Переведите отрывок «Do you want to be in my band ?».

Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

 

«Financial Markets».

Topics for discussion

1. The world’s financial markets grow more integrated.

2. Closer world integration may hurt profits of financial intermediaries.

3. South-East Asian markets have always been like a warrant to the world stock market: they go up more and they go down more.

4. International coordination over exchange rates may help to avoid the world’s currencies plunges.

5. Financial innovations and increased cross-border investment make capital controls all but impossible to enforce.

 

 UNIT IX.            BANKS AND BANKING SAVING.

 

Text A.

HOW SAFE IS YOUR BANK ?

 

1. Дайте ответы на следующие   1. Is banking a risky business ?

вопросы без предварительного       2. Are the consequences of a «systemic

чтения текста :                                          collapse» of the world banks liable to

                       be bigger now than in the recent past ?

                                               3. Do small savers prize safety above all

                                                                else ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Why do most people assume that

вопросы без предварительного              banking is nowadays under control ?

чтения текста:                                   2. Are banks taking greater risks than

                                                                they used to ?

                                                            3. What is «narrow» banking ?

                                                            4. Does «narrow» banking have its critics?

 

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

HOW SAFE IS YOUR BANK ?

Banking is boring - except to its practi­tioners, and except when it goes wrong. Most people remember vaguely that a bank­ing crisis helped tip the world into the Great Depression of the 1930s, with all its horrify­ing consequences for the second half of the century. But most people also assume that banking is nowadays under control, with the danger of failures, panics and runs abolished by careful regulation and the widespread sys­tem of deposit insurance. This assumption is, alas, wrong. If anything, the world’s banking system may be becoming even more danger­ous than it used to be, and the need for a thor­ough reform even more urgent.

There has as yet been no other “systemic” collapse on the scale of the 1930s. But failures, panics and runs continue to haunt the world’s banks. They are common in the developing world, but not confined to it. It is, after all, not even a decade since rescuing their mortgage-lending “thrifts” cost America’s taxpayers a decidedly unboring $150 billion. In Japan, the fate of seven ailing mortgage lenders has put a cloud over the country’s banks - and the cost of rescuing the lenders has be­come one of the central issues in Japan’s politics. A systemic collapse, though maybe less likely than in the recent past, is by no means impossible. And if one did occur, its consequences, both for the world’s financial systems and the broader econ­omy, are liable to be bigger.

Risky business

Why? One reason is that banks are taking greater risks than they used to. Having lost ground in their traditional business of taking deposits (many savers now prefer a mutual fund) and lending at interest (most big firms now go straight to the capital markets), they earn a larger proportion of their in­come from the volatile trading business. At the same time, they are becoming bigger. For example the for­mation of two vast new banking groups. In Japan, Mitsubishi Bank and Bank of Tokyo joined forces to become the world’s biggest bank, with ¥75 trillion ($700 billion) of assets. On the same day Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank sealed Amer­ica’s biggest-ever banking marriage.

In principle, bigger banks might be safer ones. With more capital, they should be better able to withstand financial shocks, and more willing to splash out on sophisticated risk-management systems. But neither size nor systems guarantee that banks will kick their habit of messing things up from time to time. Barings claimed to have a state-of-the-art system for managing risk. Nonetheless, this venerable British mer­chant bank was eviscerated by the unhedged bets of a single trader. Although Japan contains nine of the world’s ten biggest banks, its government has had to maintain confidence by promising that none of its top banks will be allowed to fail.

Barings was at least small enough for the Bank of England to stand aside and let it sink. It is doubtful whether banking regulators could confidently do the same with any of the new megabanks. It is at least possible that these would be considered “too big to fail”. Governments would rightly wonder whether the abrupt felling of any one of them might pose a general threat to the financial system, either by triggering a domino-like run on other banks, or by causing a sudden loss of liquidity in national payments systems. The potential damage that such a disaster could cause has risen dramatically in recent years, as banks’ expo­sure to one another has soared.

Although governments have not been supine in the face of this danger, they have fallen into a trap. Their cumulative efforts to avert trouble have had the perverse effect of adding significantly to the risk. This is because, in most countries, governments have tried to eliminate runs by insuring their citizens’ bank deposits, whether directly or by arranging in advance for sick banks to be rescued. Mostly, this has brought stability. But it has also created a vast moral hazard: a bank that is in trouble, but which knows that there is some form of public safety net slung underneath it, is more likely to take a reckless last gamble with its depositors’ cash.

To solve this problem, countries have relied on regula­tion. But some regulators are now at last admitting in public that it is increasingly hard for them to keep a close eye on banks whose activities reach far beyond conventional de­posit-taking and lending, and which operate globally. To make matters worse, regulators can no longer count on the “Three Musketeers” principle to help them deal with ailing banks. When banking was essentially a cartelised business, bankers were often willing to help support sick rivals as a quid pro quo for protection. But this “one for all and all for one” ethos is being undermined by stiffer competition. These days, it is every bank for itself.

What is to be done? Regulators in America and elsewhere are putting less emphasis on rule-making and more on en­couraging banks to buttress their internal controls. Laudable though this effort is, it will not solve the underlying problem: how to let more banks fail without triggering a systemic crisis.

To enable this to happen, governments need to think again about the bargain they have struck with the banks. In return for the safety net (and for the implicit subsidy it en­tails), they have insisted on close regulation of what the banks do. This solution, inadequate already because of the moral hazard it creates, makes no sense in a system of banking that has become too complex for the regulators to manage. It is time to take seriously the case for a far-reaching reform.

One idea, talked about for years but never adopted, is “narrow banking”. This would restrict deposit insurance to tightly supervised banks that would be allowed to invest only in safe, highly liquid assets, such as government bonds. Most of what is today considered “banking”, including lending, would be left to other, uninsured financial institutions.

Next year’s model?

The beauty of narrow banking is that it would continue to provide a haven for small savers and those who prize safety above all else, while allowing the more adventurous to take a punt on riskier firms. In return for giving up their safety net, these “broad” firms could be regulated far more lightly and so would find it easier to compete with securities houses and other non-bank rivals.

Narrow banking has its critics. One danger is that the new regime would have instabilities of its own. When the sun is shining, would not depositors pile into the “broad” institu­tions to profit from their higher returns, only to scamper abruptly to safety the moment the economy turned down? In that case, the broad institutions might collapse like ninepins, and governments might need to bail them out anyway. And might the system damage the real economy by making it more expensive for small and middling firms to borrow?

Neither objection is compelling. The first can be dealt with by preventing broad banks from offering deposits re­deemable on demand, as narrow banks would. Deposits at broad institutions could have relatively lengthy maturities, giving the institutions time to prepare for outflows. They would also almost certainly have far more capital than to­day’s banks, and plenty of lines of credit that could be called on in an emergency. As for the cost of lending to small busi­nesses, this would rise, but probably not by much. After all, unsubsidised finance companies already lend to such firms at rates that compete with those of banks.

Switching to narrow banking would be a dramatic and far-reaching change. It would shrink the banking system and redefine the very idea of a bank. That is why governments have so far preferred the ever-worsening muddle of insure-and-regulate. Is it too much to hope that, on this occasion, they will have the sense to fix the roof before the storm breaks?

 

VOCABULARY

 

1. banking	банковские операции; банковское дело
2. deposit insurance	страхование вкладов
3. «systemic» collapse	зд. кризис (крах) всей банковской системы
4. run (s) on the banks	зд. массовое изъятие денег из банков
5. mortgage-lending «thrifts»	ссудно-сберегательные учреждения, привлекающие частные сбережения и предоставляющие ипотечные кредиты; ипотечные учреждения
6. to take deposit (s)	принимать вклады (депозиты)
7. savers	вкладчики; частные инвесторы
8. lending at interest	предоставление ссуд под процент; креди-тование
9. trading business	зд. биржевые операции; сделки на фондовой бирже
10. assets	активы
11. banking marriage (banking merger)	слияние банков
12. Barings	Бэрингз – старейший английский коммерческий банк (разорился в 1995 году)
13. risk-management system	система управления рисками
14. state-of-the-art	новейший, самый современный и передовой
15. merchant bank	коммерческий банк
16. unhedged bets	«незастрахованные» операции на бирже; игра (сделки) на фондовом рынке без хеджирования
17. banking regulators	органы (учреждения) контролирующие и регулирующие банковскую систему
18. loss of liquidity	потеря ликвидных средств
19. national paymen (s) systems	национальные платежные системы (систе-мы переводов платежей и между банками и другими кредитно-финансовыми учрежде-ниями)
20. banks’ exposure	зд. 1) взаимные (межбанковские) долговые обязательства (по кредитам); 2) риски потерь, связанные с межбанковским кредитованием
21. «Three Musketeers» principle = «one for all and all for one»	«один за всех и все за одного»
22. quid pro quo (лат.)	услуга за услугу, компенсация
23. subsidy	субсидия
24. «narrow banking»	«узкие» (надежные) банковские операции», т.е. система, при которой банкам разрешается инвестировать средства только в надежные высоколиквидные активы (при страховании депозитов)
25. «broad» firm (s)	зд. финансовые учреждения, осуществляющие «широкие» операции, с ликвидными активами включая рискованные операции
26. securities houses	инвестиционные компании, фирмы, осуществляющие распространение ценных бумаг и операции с ними
27. to bail out ( banks )	«спасение» банков, находящихся на грани банкротства
28. deposits redeemable on demand	депозиты с выплатой по требованию
29. maturity	зд. наступление срока платежа
30. line (s) of credit	кредитная линия, т.е. неформальное обязательство банка кредитовать клиента до установленного максимума
31. to call on	требовать уплаты
32. cost of lending	зд. ссудный процент

 

4. Переведите отрывок «Risky business».